Markets in a minute – Sept 17, 2020

THE ECONOMY

Consumer spending slowed in August, as extended unemployment benefits ran out for millions of Americans. Despite being lower than expected, retail sales still increased 0.6%.

The Fed left policy rates unchanged at this week’s meeting and signaled near-zero rates will last through 2023 to aid the economy on its rebound from the coronavirus shutdowns.

Jobless claims fell slightly less than expected last week, suggesting the labor market recovery has slowed. Nearly 30 million people remain on unemployment benefits.

HOUSING NEWS

Single-family home construction increased 4.1% for the month. Overall, housing starts fell more than expected in August, as multi-family home construction slumped.

Builder confidence remains at an all-time high as housing leads the economic recovery. This month’s level beat last month’s record high despite labor shortages and rising lumber prices.

Purchase mortgage applications last week were 6% higher than a year ago, though down 1% from the previous week. Total applications declined 2.5% for the week.

Markets in a minute – September 10, 2020

THE ECONOMY

Producer prices rose a bit more than expected in August, as the cost of services increased solidly. Underlying wholesale inflation also continued to rise, but only slightly.

Lawmakers still struggle to agree on a new stimulus package. Republicans have proposed a ‘skinny’ stimulus bill, and Democrats have said they will not support it.

Jobless claims missed estimates last week as employment gains tapered. Continuing claims rose to 13.385 million, an indication that labor market improvement may be tailing off.

HOUSING NEWS

Mortgage applications to purchase a home rose 3% last week from the previous week and were 40% higher than a year ago. Refinances were up 60% year over year.

The number of homes for sale nationwide is in record low territory, and some of the nation’s most affordable areas are seeing the largest drops in housing inventories.

Bidding wars continue to send home prices higher. More than two-thirds of homes sold in July were on the market for less than a month, according to NAR.

Markets in a minute – September 3, 2020

THE ECONOMY

Manufacturing activity increased in August, as new orders surged to their highest level in over 16-1/2 years. Factory activity is being driven by increased demand for goods.

Construction spending was up to 0.1% in July, breaking a string of losses due to disruptions caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Spending included a 2.1% rise in residential construction.

Jobless claims fell even more than expected last week, down to 881,000. This is the lowest level since the economy began feeling the pandemic’s full impact in March.

HOUSING NEWS

The CDC this week issued a sweeping temporary halt on evictions through the end of 2020. Unlike previous protections, this one applied to all U.S. rental properties.

Mortgage demand from homebuyers last week was 28% higher than last year, as rates remain low. Refinance mortgage applications were 40% higher than a year ago.

A shortage of existing homes is driving shoppers to new construction. New single-family home sales jumped 14% in July from June and are at the highest level since December 2006.

What The Future Brings: The Impact of Technology on Commercial Real Estate

Technological, social, and economic challenges of the future will change the way people live, work, and shop. These changes can significantly impact today’s climate, not just in residential, but in the commercial real estate sector as well and its portion of the value chain. The ultimate question is who will profit and who will lose money in the future world of commercial real estate. 

What can we expect?

The present evolution of technologies towards digitization and automation will cause massive changes within the industry. The job profiles that exist today will change, along with the clients’ demands on how the job is executed. There will be an increase of redundant low-skilled, blue-collar workers while, white-collar jobs will be more driven by data, performed remotely, which will impact the need for office spaces, as well as functional office design and furnishings. These developments promise to reshape the commercial real estate environment. 

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The future is mobile

With autonomous cars just around the corner, we can expect major changes to the ways cities are built and developed. Property managers will have to evaluate how they use space. The decreased need for parking spaces both on and off the street will free up large areas for development. In some cities, landlords are converting parking space into commercial real estate, taking advantage of the premium location and street-level access. The new space requirements will include re-configured parking solutions for driverless cars and warehouses for automated loading machines. 

Tenant health and wellness

As global environmental concerns are gaining momentum, people are more concerned about the impact of commercial spaces on their health and wellness. A global 2016 survey by Deloitte that targeted the Millennial population showed that young professionals consider employee well-being as one of the most important qualities of a workplace. To meet these demands, companies are considering how to improve the health and well-being of their commercial tenants and residents. The overall prediction is that commercial properties that don’t meet the needs of modern tenants won’t see modern tenants. The survey analysis recommends that real estate companies should include tenants in decision-making, so they can better understand design elements that cater to health and wellness. 

Rise of smart energy products

With the UN predictions that the world population will reach 9.7 billion in 2050, over 66% will live and work in cities. As a consequence, commercial places will have to become increasingly urbanized with unprecedented integration of smart technologies, drones, autonomous vehicles, and automated services. The modern urban architecture will rely heavily on smart energy products like industrial lighting solutions shown here, as well as on data and technology to make life more comfortable. As a result, the cost of both commercial and residential real estate is expected to rise in those districts.

3D printing

We won’t have to wait long before builders are able to print entire floors with immense time savings. In China and Dubai, there are already low-rise commercial properties being developed with 3D printing, and the builders are reporting construction time reduced by 70% and cost by 80%. With its huge implications for construction, 3D printing is both a threat to traditional warehousing, as less space will be required, but also an opportunity for retailers to respond on-demand. 

Event-driven shopping

The rapid increase of online shopping will further reduce demand for retail real estate assets, with more demand for just-in-time logistics. Amazon is already experimenting with drone delivery service, claiming it’s much safer and faster than going through couriers or postal service. This way, logistics centers could be located at the periphery, freeing more space in the city center. Upper-end high street miles will still exist, primarily through the leisure PR function, but smaller retail businesses in decentralized regions will suffer the heaviest blow. To meet the demands of new customers and build interest, shopping malls will need to resort to more event-driven concepts that emphasize on experience rather than shopping. 

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Fading relevance of real estate brokers

As individual market players in the real estate arena, real estate brokers will become increasingly redundant due to market transparency policies and automated rental negotiations between owners and lessees. Real estate transactions will be based on technologies like blockchain, which eliminates the need for the middle-man. On the other hand, the government won’t miss an opportunity to benefit from new developments through new tax models, such as a tax for automation. Part of this income will be much needed for mitigating social problems due to increased unemployment, which is a result of automated processes. Although the future banks will certainly take advantage of the high degree of debt financing for real estate projects, crowdfunding platforms will take their share as strong competitors to traditional banking. 

The word ‘smart’ has changed slightly in meaning over the last decade, as new technologies granted us even more features that help us manage our lives. The increasing automation of running the business will bring profound changes in the commercial real estate sector, that go far beyond smart buildings and shared workspaces.

5 Emerging Real Estate Trends to Get Ready for in 2020

Real estate seems to be one of those investment classes that is always viable to investors, simply due to the versatility of the asset and the numerous ways you can build a positive ROI. Whether you are selling or leasing, or if you’re buying during an economic shift for an affordable price with the intention to wait until the property prices rise again, there are numerous ways you can capitalize on your real estate investment. For example, in 2019 in the US alone, median home prices went all the way up to $316,000, making it one of the best years for real estate agents and experienced investors.

Now that 2020 is well under way, it’s time to prepare for the new emerging trends and adjust your strategy for the new year, whether you are a buyer or a seller. Let’s take a look at some of the top trends you need to get ready for and act on sooner rather than later.

Home prices continue to rise

The growth trend for home prices in the US that has been persevering through 2018 and 2019 seems to the waning, and experts even predict that, while it will continue to rise, the average home price in 2020 will grow by only 2.8%. This means that investors and homebuyers, in general, will be able to take their time selecting the best properties for their needs, without fear of losing out on a good deal and having to overinvest. If you are a seller, you can expect fewer homebuyers to come your way simply because the elevated prices are squeezing them out of the market, however, that also means that affluent buyers will stay in the game.

On the other side, if you are a buyer, you will have to tend to some meticulous financial planning, forecasting, and property research. It’s important that you figure out the monthly mortgage payment according to your budget, and then make sure you stay within that amount. Search for properties that are low on the price list that you can fix up over time and as you build up your financial capabilities. 

Real Estate Trends 2020 (1)

Accommodating seniors and Gen Z-ers

While the majority of homebuyers are still millennials, it’s important to note that other demographics are jumping into the fray and that real estate professionals need to optimize their offers and portfolios for other types of customers. Namely, 2020 will see a rise in senior buyers as well as Gen Z buyers. With millions of people entering their silver years and millions of young people entering their home-buying years, it’s important to adapt and stage every home according to the unique needs of these generations.

This is the only way to appeal to the modern buyer irrespective of age, as both generations will have very different lifestyle preferences and requirements. When you’re showing a home, you have to appeal to their current and future needs, which means thinking strategically about what seniors need vs what young people might be looking for. Remember to emphasize indoor safety for the senior buyers, and high-tech features for the tech-savvy Gen Z-ers.

The rise of display homes

Now that buyers are taking a more careful and calculated approach to property acquisition, it’s important to note that their decision-making process is evolving as a result. Whether they are looking to buy into a property development project that in its early stages, or if they are looking into plots of land to build their own homes, people are becoming very particular about the architects and builders they work with. In countries where property prices are sky-high, such as Australia, this has already become a major trend.

This is also why the popularity of luxury display homes in Sydney has skyrocketed in recent years, and why it will continue to rise in 2020, as Australian buyers want and need to examine the builder’s capabilities in real life rather than looking at online portfolios, pictures, and case studies. Display homes will become more popular in all high-priced regions of the world, so be sure to prepare for this trend whether you are an investor, an architect, or a buyer.

The neighborhood is not a deciding factor

Surprisingly, the neighborhood where the property resides doesn’t seem to be a deciding factor anymore. Yes, buyers will still research the neighborhood thoroughly, but they will be more inclined to give less-than-ideal neighborhoods a pass if the property is more affordable, or if there are other valuable features that the home can provide. For sellers, this is an opportunity to sell a home in a less popular neighborhood, and for buyers who are working with a limited budget, this is an opportunity to find a new home without breaking the bank.

Real Estate Trends 2020 (2)

Technology will fuel market research

Finally, all investors and real estate experts need to invest in technology in order to capitalize on industry trends and market insights this year, and in the years to come. With more and more valuable data flowing around the digital realm, it becomes impossible to conduct predictive analytics manually anymore, which is why you need to integrate AI-driven data analysis into your operation to organize all of that data into actionable reports and create accurate forecasts that will drive your business strategy forward.

Wrapping up

In 2020, many trends that have been persisting in the past will stay relevant, but some will bring significant change to the industry that all parties should be aware of. With these insights in mind, go ahead and optimize your processes for the new year and pave the road to success.